92% — Will the FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 be above 131.0
Leader: Above 127.0 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:31:48 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently estimate a 94% probability that the FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 will exceed 128.0, with declining confidence at higher thresholds (59% above 131.0, 6% above 136.0). This reflects market expectations about global commodity prices, supply-chain conditions, and weather impacts on key crops. The wide spread across price brackets suggests traders view modest increases as very likely, but sharper spikes as increasingly uncertain. The resolution depends on the FAO's actual May 2026 index release, which typically arrives weeks after month-end. Factors supporting higher readings include persistent input costs and potential supply disruptions; downward pressure could come from improved harvests or weakening demand. The relatively low trading volume on the highest brackets indicates limited consensus on extreme scenarios.

Key factors:
- FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 must be published by the FAO before any contract resolves; timing and data quality directly determine outcome
- Historical May 2026 index levels relative to April 2026 and the prior-year May 2025 baseline shape whether 128–131 thresholds are breached
- Commodity sub-indices (cereals, oils, meat, dairy, sugar) will be weighted equally in the composite; weakness in any major component reduces the overall index
- Weather events in spring 2026 affecting major crop regions and harvest expectations will influence market pricing through May
- Currency movements relative to USD and geopolitical supply disruptions during May 2026 can shift input cost inflation and trading patterns

Contracts:
- Will the FAO Food Price Index for June 2026 be above 127.0?: Above 127.0 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will the FAO Food Price Index for June 2026 be above 128.0?: Above 128.0 — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will the FAO Food Price Index for June 2026 be above 129.0?: Above 129.0 — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will the FAO Food Price Index for June 2026 be above 130.0?: Above 130.0 — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will the FAO Food Price Index for June 2026 be above 131.0?: Above 131.0 — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will the FAO Food Price Index for June 2026 be above 132.0?: Above 132.0 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will the FAO Food Price Index for June 2026 be above 133.0?: Above 133.0 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will the FAO Food Price Index for June 2026 be above 136.0?: Above 136.0 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.345Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/faofpi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20FAO%20Food%20Price%20Index%20for%20May%202026%20be%20above%20131.0
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev