48% — Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Senate investigators publicly release previously nonpublic substantive communications or records obtained from the copy of Anthony Fauci’s iPhone transferred by HHS to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations before Sep 1, 2026 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 48% · Kalshi 48% · 4 contracts · $637 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-23 23:36:51 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Senate investigators will publicly release substantive communications or records from Anthony Fauci's iPhone transferred by HHS to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations before September 1, 2026. The 48% level suggests roughly even odds, driven by uncertainty about whether the Subcommittee will choose to publicize detailed materials versus maintaining confidentiality during ongoing investigations. The key catalyst is the September 1 deadline itself—whether the Subcommittee publishes findings or releases materials before that date. Market pricing may reflect broader political dynamics around the investigation's scope, timing constraints of the congressional calendar, and historical precedent for how Senate committees typically handle sensitive executive communications. Lower probability than a coin flip suggests market skepticism about public release in this specific timeframe. Key factors: - The September 1, 2026 deadline creates a hard temporal boundary; current date is August 11, leaving 21 days for potential releases - Senate Permanent Subcommittee practices typically involve selective disclosure tied to formal reports rather than bulk document releases, which would work against the resolution criteria - Definition of 'substantive communications or records' and 'publicly release' must be met by Source Agencies' own reporting—ambiguity about what counts as substantive could affect resolution - Political pressure and congressional calendar considerations in August-September may accelerate or delay any disclosure decisions - Prior congressional investigations show variable timelines for document releases; no clear precedent exists for this specific scenario Contracts: - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Senate investigators publicly release previously nonpublic substantive communications or records obtained from the copy of Anthony Fauci’s iPhone transferred by HHS to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 48¢ Kalshi $419 (weight 66%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Senate investigators publicly release previously nonpublic substantive communications or records obtained from the copy of Anthony Fauci’s iPhone transferred by HHS to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 28¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 2%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Senate investigators publicly release previously nonpublic substantive communications or records obtained from the copy of Anthony Fauci’s iPhone transferred by HHS to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Senate investigators publicly release previously nonpublic substantive communications or records obtained from the copy of Anthony Fauci’s iPhone transferred by HHS to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations before Aug 15, 2026?: Before Aug 15, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $203 (weight 32%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T19:20:51.650Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fauciiphone-27 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20reported%20by%20any%20of%20the%20Source%20Agencies%20that%20Senate%20investigators%20publicly%20release%20previously%20nonpublic%20substantive%20communications%20or%20records%20obtained%20from%20the%20copy%20of%20Anthony%20Fauci%E2%80%99s%20iPhone%20transferred%20by%20HHS%20to%20the%20Senate%20Permanent%20Subcommittee%20on%20Investigations%20before%20Sep%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev