38% — FC Cajamarca vs. Sport Boys Association - More Markets: FC Cajamarca (-1.5)
Polymarket 26% · Kalshi 42% · 15 contracts · $30K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:12:14 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 16pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
A 33% probability means markets estimate roughly a one-in-three chance that FC Cajamarca wins by 2 or more goals against Sport Boys Association. This reflects moderate skepticism about a decisive home victory, likely driven by Sport Boys' defensive capability and historical head-to-head performance. The main catalyst is the match itself, which will definitively resolve whether Cajamarca achieves the required margin. Upward pressure on this probability would come from pre-match team news favoring Cajamarca (injuries to Sport Boys' key defenders, lineup changes), while downward pressure would come from evidence of Cajamarca's attacking struggles or Sport Boys' recent strong form. The current 1-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests modest disagreement across venues, though the 18 contracts on Polymarket provide substantially more liquidity than the 2 on Kalshi.

Key factors:
- FC Cajamarca's home-field record and goal-scoring average in recent matches versus Sport Boys' away defensive performance
- Sport Boys Association's injury status and recent lineup changes heading into match day
- Historical head-to-head results between these teams, particularly margin-of-victory patterns
- Current league standings and playoff implications that might affect team motivation or tactical approach
- Polymarket's 18-contract depth versus Kalshi's 2 contracts, indicating concentration risk in price discovery

Contracts:
- Will G2 Esports win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match?: G2 Esports — 69¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 10%)
- Will Dragon Ranger Gaming win the Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. Trace Esports Valorant match?: Dragon Ranger Gaming — 89¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 10%)
- Will Trace Esports win the Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. Trace Esports Valorant match?: Trace Esports — 11¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 9%)
- Will Natus Vincere win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match?: Natus Vincere — 30¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 9%)
- Will Team Envy win the Team Envy vs. G2 Esports Valorant match?: Team Envy — 16¢ Kalshi $491 (weight 7%)
- Will UNO MILLE win the UNO MILLE vs. Yawara Esports CS2 match?: UNO MILLE — 18¢ Kalshi $372 (weight 6%)
- FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF - More Markets: Viborg FF (-2.5) — 3¢ Polymarket $317 (weight 6%)
- CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: CS Cristal (-2.5) — 3¢ Polymarket $306 (weight 6%)
- ... and 7 more

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fc-cajamarca-vs-sport-boys-association-more-markets-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=FC%20Cajamarca%20vs.%20Sport%20Boys%20Association%20-%20More%20Markets%3A%20FC%20Cajamarca%20(-1.5)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev