54% — When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List
Leader: Before 2027 at 54% · Kalshi 54% · 3 contracts · $363 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 05:24:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the FDA will reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List before the end of 2026. The 46% price for a 2026 announcement versus 29% for one before November suggests traders see a meaningful but uncertain timeline. Key drivers include BPC-157's current regulatory status, pending FDA guidance or applications, and the agency's administrative capacity. The main catalyst would be an official FDA announcement or published guidance on BPC-157's reclassification. Without imminent regulatory signals, traders are pricing in genuine uncertainty about whether formal action occurs within the 5-month window remaining in 2026, versus pushing into 2027 or beyond.

Key factors:
- BPC-157's current FDA classification and whether any formal reclassification petitions or applications are pending
- The FDA's historical timeline for similar bulk drug substance reclassifications and current agency workload
- Published or announced FDA guidance specifically addressing BPC-157's regulatory pathway
- Market concentration risk: total 24-hour volume across three contracts is approximately $1,578, indicating moderate liquidity and potential information gaps
- The gap between 'Before November' (29%) and 'Before 2027' (46%) suggests traders estimate only ~17 percentage points of probability mass for the December-January window

Contracts:
- When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before 2027 — 54¢ Kalshi $127 (weight 35%)
- When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before November — 35¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 5%)
- When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List?: Before September — 7¢ Kalshi $217 (weight 60%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T05:20:52.981Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "54% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fdaannounce-bpc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20FDA%20announce%20Reclassification%20of%20BPC-157%20to%20Category%201%20of%20the%20Bulk%20Drug%20Substances%20List
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev