81% — Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2028
Leader: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 81% · Kalshi 81% · 5 contracts · $1 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 14:20:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 22¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-25T14:20:10.883Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fdaapprove-cag
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20FDA%20approve%20CagriSema%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202028
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev