52% — Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2032 at 52% · Kalshi 52% · 6 contracts · $60 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 23:40:20 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?: Before Jan 1, 2032 — 52¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 18%)
- Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030 — 49¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 20%)
- Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 2031 — 49¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 7%)
- Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029 — 44¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 17%)
- Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 32¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 23%)
- Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 22¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 15%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T23:20:07.655Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "52% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fdaapprove-mdma
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20FDA%20approve%20midomafetamine%20%2F%20MDMA%20for%20PTSD%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev