91% — When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2029 at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 5 contracts · $594 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:56 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Contracts:
- When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jan 1, 2029 — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jul 1, 2028 — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jul 1, 2027 — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 22¢ Kalshi $594 (weight 100%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.214Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fdaretatrutide-ret
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20the%20FDA%20approve%20retatrutide%20(LY3437943)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev