24% — Will Opensea FDV be above $9999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027
Leader: $2,000,000,000+ at 24% · Kalshi 24% · 5 contracts · $461 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether OpenSea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed $10 billion at the start of 2027. The current 13% probability reflects skepticism about such a valuation level within 8 months. The main drivers are OpenSea's trading volume trends, competitive pressure from other NFT marketplaces, and broader crypto market sentiment. A resolution depends on OpenSea's token price and fully diluted share count on January 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM—both inputs are objective and verifiable from blockchain data and official sources. Major catalysts include significant platform updates, changes in NFT market adoption rates, or token listings that would affect the FDV calculation directly.

Key factors:
- OpenSea's daily trading volume and market share in the NFT ecosystem as of late 2026
- Token price on January 1, 2027 and the total fully diluted supply at resolution time
- Competitive developments from rival platforms like Magic Eden, Blur, or new entrants
- Broader crypto market conditions and institutional adoption of NFTs in Q4 2026
- Any announced token distribution events or changes to OpenSea's tokenomics before resolution

Contracts:
- Will Opensea FDV be above $1999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $2,000,000,000+ — 24¢ Kalshi $413 (weight 90%)
- Will Opensea FDV be above $4999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $5,000,000,000+ — 15¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 10%)
- Will Opensea FDV be above $7999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $8,000,000,000+ — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Opensea FDV be above $14999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $15,000,000,000+ — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Opensea FDV be above $9999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027?: $10,000,000,000+ — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.516Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fdvopensea
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Opensea%20FDV%20be%20above%20%249999999999.99%20at%2010%3A00%20AM%20on%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev