43% — What will the Fear & Greed Index be on Jul 2, 2026
Leader: Greed at 43% · Kalshi 43% · 14 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 00:11:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The Fear & Greed Index measures market sentiment on a scale from extreme fear to extreme greed, with this contract predicting which sentiment will dominate on July 2, 2026. The 49% probability for Fear reflects recent market volatility and uncertainty, with trading volume concentrated on Neutral (48% implied) and Fear outcomes. The Index responds to macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical developments, and shifts in asset valuations. Near-term catalysts include economic data releases, central bank communications, and equity market movements in the two days before resolution. The current distribution suggests meaningful disagreement among traders about whether sentiment will remain cautious or shift toward either extreme fear or recovery.

Key factors:
- Fear and Neutral contracts account for 97% of implied probability, indicating traders expect no greed-driven sentiment
- Neutral contract has highest 24-hour volume ($948) despite lowest price (10¢), suggesting active repositioning between fear and neutrality
- The 49% Fear price is the leading outcome but not dominant, with 51% probability distributed across other sentiment buckets
- Extreme Fear at 30% probability indicates non-trivial tail risk, requiring either economic deterioration or crisis-level events by July 2
- Greed contract priced at 3¢ reflects minimal trader confidence in positive market sentiment within the two-day window

Contracts:
- Fear & Greed Index on Aug 14, 2026?: Greed — 43¢ Kalshi $617 (weight 7%)
- Fear & Greed Index on Aug 28, 2026?: Fear — 31¢ Kalshi $240 (weight 3%)
- Fear & Greed Index on Aug 14, 2026?: Fear — 27¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 0%)
- Fear & Greed Index on Aug 21, 2026?: Greed — 26¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 0%)
- Fear & Greed Index on Aug 21, 2026?: Fear — 25¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Fear & Greed Index on Aug 28, 2026?: Neutral — 22¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 36%)
- Fear & Greed Index on Aug 28, 2026?: Greed — 22¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 20%)
- Fear & Greed Index on Aug 21, 2026?: Neutral — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:50.275Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fear
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20the%20Fear%20%26%20Greed%20Index%20be%20on%20Jul%202%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev