3% — Will Doja Cat be featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal'
Kalshi 3% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 12:59:59 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates an 18% chance that Doja Cat will appear as a featured artist on Ariana Grande's upcoming album 'petal'. The probability reflects limited public signals about Grande's collaborator roster for this project. Key drivers include the artists' prior working relationship and industry patterns around feature selection, balanced against the absence of any announced or leaked collaboration between them. The primary resolution catalyst will be the album's release, which would confirm the final featured artist lineup. Until then, any official announcements, production credits, or label disclosures about 'petal' collaborators could significantly shift market expectations in either direction.

Key factors:
- Doja Cat and Ariana Grande have not previously collaborated on a major released track, which is atypical for artists at their career levels if a feature were planned
- The 18% probability sits substantially higher than Billie Eilish (6%) but lower than Victoria Monét (17%), suggesting modest but not strong consensus about Doja Cat's inclusion
- No leaked production credits, studio sessions, or industry reports have publicly surfaced linking Doja Cat to 'petal' as of the market date
- Ariana Grande's recent albums have featured a limited number of collaborators per project, constraining the total probability space across all potential artists
- The album's release date and any pre-release announcements will provide definitive information, making this a resolvable binary outcome

Contracts:
- Will Taylor Swift be featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal'?: Taylor Swift — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-01T14:20:52.057Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/feature
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Doja%20Cat%20be%20featured%20on%20Ariana%20Grande's%20album%20titled%20'petal'
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev