21% — Will Doja Cat be featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal' Kalshi 21% · 18 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:30 UTC Why this matters: This prediction asks whether Doja Cat will appear on Ariana Grande's upcoming album 'petal.' At 42%, the market suggests roughly even odds but slight skepticism about a collaboration. The probability reflects that while both artists are commercially active—Grande is expected to release new music and potentially achieve chart success this year—no announcement of Doja Cat's involvement has been made public. The main upward pressure comes from both artists' established history of collaborations and their overlapping fanbases. Downward pressure stems from the absence of any confirmed partnership and the album's presumably near-complete production status. The resolution hinges on the 'petal' album's official release and tracklist, which would definitively confirm or deny Doja Cat's participation. Until then, the market is pricing in moderate uncertainty around whether these two artists will connect on this particular project. Key factors: - No official announcement or leak has surfaced confirming Doja Cat on the 'petal' tracklist as of early May 2026 - Ariana Grande's market probability of #1 album status (93¢) suggests strong anticipated album performance, but does not confirm specific features - Doja Cat's 95¢ probability of Met Gala 2026 attendance indicates she remains a visible public figure, supporting feasibility of a high-profile collaboration - The timeline for 'petal' release remains unspecified; unknown proximity to release date affects likelihood of surprise features versus pre-announced collaborations - Both artists have collaborated with multiple partners across recent projects, making cross-artist features common but not guaranteed for any specific album Contracts: - Will DJ Khaled be featured on SET IN STONE?: DJ Khaled — 8¢ Kalshi $152 (weight 13%) - Will Playboi Carti be featured on 'The Real Me' by Future?: Playboi Carti — 32¢ Kalshi $148 (weight 13%) - Will Don Toliver be featured on 'The Real Me' by Future?: Don Toliver — 18¢ Kalshi $131 (weight 11%) - Will Nav be featured on 'The Real Me' by Future?: Nav — 23¢ Kalshi $129 (weight 11%) - Will Caroline Polachek be featured on Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx?: Caroline Polachek — 6¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 9%) - Will Troye Sivan be featured on Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx?: Troye Sivan — 17¢ Kalshi $98 (weight 8%) - Will Billie Eilish be featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal'?: Billie Eilish — 37¢ Kalshi $92 (weight 8%) - Will 21 Savage be featured on SET IN STONE?: 21 Savage — 4¢ Kalshi $87 (weight 8%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.237Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/feature Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Doja%20Cat%20be%20featured%20on%20Ariana%20Grande's%20album%20titled%20'petal' Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev