94% — Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting
Leader: Above 0.00% at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 19 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 15:22:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents traders' collective expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep its target rate above 4.00% when it meets on January 27, 2027. At 96%, the market is pricing in a high likelihood the Fed maintains rates above that threshold for the next six months. The current level reflects recent inflation data and Fed communications suggesting resistance to aggressive rate cuts. The primary uncertainty would resolve following the Fed's December 2026 meeting, where officials signal their January intentions through policy decisions and guidance. Market participants are heavily betting against a scenario where the Fed cuts rates below 4.00% by late January, though modest rate cuts between now and then remain priced in by competing contracts showing lower probability for below-3.75% bounds.

Key factors:
- As of early July 2026, the current federal funds rate upper bound is 5.25-5.50%, so reaching exactly 4.00% by January would require approximately 125-150 basis points of cuts over six months
- The December 9, 2026 Fed meeting shows 93% probability of rates staying above 2.75% but only 86% above 3.50%, indicating significant uncertainty about the pace of cuts in Q4 2026
- The July 29, 2026 meeting contract trades at only 15 cents, suggesting markets expect immediate rate cuts from current levels, creating a steeper glide path to 4.00% by January
- Economic data between now and December—particularly inflation readings and employment reports—will materially influence whether the Fed can or will cut 125+ basis points without triggering policy reversal
- The 96% probability derives from a single contract (above 2.75% post-January meeting) and is not an arithmetic average; competing outcomes suggest meaningful tail risk below 4.00%

Contracts:
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 0.00% — 94¢ Kalshi $530 (weight 23%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.50% — 89¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 5%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 4.00% — 84¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 0.25% — 76¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 4%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.75% — 72¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?: Above 4.00% — 66¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.25% — 64¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 26, 2028 meeting?: Above 3.25% — 61¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T15:20:49.713Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20upper%20bound%20of%20the%20federal%20funds%20rate%20be%20above%204.00%25%20following%20the%20Fed's%20Jan%2027%2C%202027%20meeting
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev