80% — Fed Decision in July
Leader: No change at 80% · Polymarket 80% · 2 contracts · $813K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-16 09:15:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 38% probability reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its July 2026 meeting. The futures market shows overwhelming confidence in no rate change at the June meeting (96% implied probability), which anchors expectations for July. The probability of a July cut sits well below the "no change" scenario (88%), suggesting markets currently expect the Fed to maintain rates steady through mid-year. The 4-percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi reflects typical venue differences and relatively low liquidity in the July decrease contracts ($15,812 in 24-hour volume). Shifts in this probability would depend primarily on inflation data between now and July, employment reports, Fed communications about economic conditions, and any financial stability concerns that might prompt earlier action.

Key factors:
- June meeting is priced at 96% no-change, constraining July cut probability by establishing a baseline hold scenario
- July decrease contracts show minimal volume ($15,812 for 25 bps cut vs. $141,546 for no-change), indicating lower conviction and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- Next major economic data releases (CPI, PCE, jobs reports) through June will be primary drivers of probability repricing
- Fed officials' public communications and forward guidance between now and late June could shift rate-cut expectations significantly
- No rate increase is priced near zero (3¢), suggesting near-complete market confidence that tightening is off the table by July

Contracts:
- Fed Decision in July?: No change — 80¢ Polymarket $488K (weight 60%)
- Fed Decision in July?: 25 bps increase — 19¢ Polymarket $325K (weight 40%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-decision-july
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Fed%20Decision%20in%20July
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev