75% — Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Leader: Pause–Pause–Pause at 75% · Polymarket 75% · 3 contracts · $105 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 10:35:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at three consecutive meetings from March through June 2026. At 95%, traders are pricing in an extremely high likelihood of continued policy pauses rather than rate cuts or hikes. The current level reflects Fed communications suggesting persistent inflation concerns and the recent pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in late 2024. The main factors supporting this high pause probability are sticky inflation metrics and recent Fed guidance emphasizing caution. Movements would likely follow Consumer Price Index releases, employment data, and Fed speakers' comments about inflation and economic conditions. The June Federal Open Market Committee meeting represents a key decision point that could shift expectations, particularly if inflation data changes meaningfully before then.

Key factors:
- PCE inflation readings for April-May 2026 will directly influence expectations about Fed patience; persistent above-target inflation would reinforce pause odds
- Monthly employment reports and jobless claims data between now and June will signal labor-market strength and constraint; stronger-than-expected job creation typically supports continued pauses
- Fed communications and speaker remarks, especially from Chair Powell and other voting members, will indicate confidence in the inflation trajectory
- Market pricing for March-June contracts (95%) versus April-July contracts (86%) suggests slightly elevated uncertainty about the second pause in the latter window
- Historical volatility in these contracts is very low ($0 24h volume on three of five contracts), indicating thin liquidity and potential for larger moves if economic data surprises

Contracts:
- Fed decisions (Apr-Jul): Pause–Pause–Pause — 75¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Fed decisions (Apr-Jul): Other — 15¢ Polymarket $64 (weight 61%)
- Fed decisions (Apr-Jul): Pause–Pause–Cut — 4¢ Polymarket $41 (weight 39%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-decisions-aprjul
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Fed%20decisions%20(Apr-Jul)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev