56% — Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Leader: Pause–Pause–Pause at 56% · Polymarket 56% · 3 contracts · $265 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 10:20:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at both the June and September 2026 meetings, with no rate cuts during this period. The 72% probability for the Pause–Pause–Pause scenario indicates traders view sustained higher rates as more likely than any cutting cycle. This outlook is primarily driven by inflation expectations and labor market conditions—if either deteriorates significantly, markets would shift toward pricing in rate cuts (currently at 14% for the Pause–Pause–Cut scenario). The June FOMC decision on June 18 will be the immediate catalyst, as it will provide clarity on the Fed's near-term stance and signal whether officials see sufficient progress on inflation to consider adjustments by September. Economic data releases between now and September, particularly inflation reports and employment figures, will determine whether this consensus holds or shifts toward earlier rate reductions.

Key factors:
- The highest-priced contract at 83¢ reflects 83% confidence in no cuts through September, while competing scenarios (cuts in June, July, or August) total only 15¢, indicating strong market consensus for pause continuation
- The June 18 FOMC meeting represents the immediate resolution point; any forward guidance suggesting rate cuts would likely trigger sharp repricing toward cut scenarios
- Inflation data (CPI/PCE releases) and employment reports between now and September are the primary variables that could move the needle on whether the Fed maintains its current stance
- Trading volume concentration ($9 24h vol on the Pause–Cut scenario versus $1 on the leading contract) suggests limited conviction on cut timing despite meaningful tail probabilities
- The 14% runner-up probability for Pause–Pause–Cut indicates markets price meaningful risk of at least one cut by September if economic conditions soften

Contracts:
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Pause–Pause–Pause — 56¢ Polymarket $129 (weight 49%)
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Other — 40¢ Polymarket $7 (weight 3%)
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep): Pause–Pause–Cut — 17¢ Polymarket $129 (weight 49%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-decisions-junsep
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Fed%20decisions%20(Jun-Sep)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev