25% — What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?
Polymarket 25% · Kalshi 24% · 20 contracts · $201K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-05-01 18:31:46 UTC

Why this matters:
The federal funds rate is currently 3.64%, and prediction markets assign a 43% probability that the upper bound will remain above 3.50% following the Fed's April 2027 meeting. Markets are signaling a high level of long-term rate uncertainty, with a 35% probability that the rate will remain above 4.00% by that date. This reflects ongoing adjustments as the economy balances a 3.2% core PCE inflation rate against a 4.3% unemployment rate.

Key factors:
- current fed rate 3.64%
- 43% chance of rates above 3.50% by April 2027
- 35% chance of rates above 4.00% by April 2027
- core PCE at 3.2% annually

Contracts:
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 4¢ Kalshi $102K (weight 8%)
- Fed rate cut by...?: June Meeting — 5¢ Polymarket $32K (weight 7%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps) — 57¢ Polymarket $21K (weight 7%)
- Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?: Exactly 0 cuts — 55¢ Kalshi $19K (weight 7%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps) — 18¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 6%)
- Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?: Cuts — 46¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 6%)
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 7¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 6%)
- Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026? — 11¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-rate-cut
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20are%20the%20odds%20of%20a%20Fed%20rate%20cut%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev