36% — What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?
Leader: December Meeting at 36% · Kalshi 88% · Polymarket 80% · 11 contracts · $38.7M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 02:12:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 8pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?" 88¢; polymarket "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)" 80¢; kalshi "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?" 69¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

Key factors:
- Federal funds rate at 3.63%
- 80% probability of zero rate cuts in 2026
- 57% likelihood of rate hike by year-end
- CPI inflation at 4.17% YoY
- Resilient unemployment rate of 4.3%

Contracts:
- Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027? — 88¢ Kalshi $43K (weight 0%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps) — 80¢ Polymarket $5.3M (weight 14%)
- Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027? — 69¢ Kalshi $90K (weight 0%)
- Will the Reserve Bank of India Maintain current rate at the August Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee meeting? — 64¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%)
- Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026? — 57¢ Kalshi $839K (weight 2%)
- Fed rate cut by...?: December Meeting — 21¢ Polymarket $178K (weight 0%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps) — 14¢ Polymarket $1.7M (weight 4%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 2 (50 bps) — 4¢ Polymarket $1.7M (weight 4%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-rate-cut
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20are%20the%20odds%20of%20a%20Fed%20rate%20cut%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev