64% — What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 96% · 19 contracts · $27.5M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 12:52:22 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 3pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, and prediction markets assign a 57% probability that the rate remains above 4.00% following the October 2026 meeting. By December 2026, the market consensus overwhelmingly suggests the rate will stay above 3.75%, showing a 98% probability for that threshold.

Key factors:
- Federal funds rate at 3.63%
- 57% probability of rate above 4.00% in Oct
- 98% probability of rate above 3.75% in Dec
- Current effective rate of 3.88%

Contracts:
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — 99¢ Kalshi $19K (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — 98¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — 98¢ Kalshi $24K (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — 98¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — 98¢ Kalshi $34K (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — 98¢ Kalshi $45K (weight 0%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps) — 96¢ Polymarket $8.5M (weight 31%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? — 90¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-20T06:41:39.067Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "64% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-rate-cut
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20are%20the%20odds%20of%20a%20Fed%20rate%20cut%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev