47% — Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?
Kalshi 62% · Polymarket 17% · 23 contracts · $20.6M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:47 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 45pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
Prediction markets indicate a 97% probability that the federal funds rate will remain above 3.25% following the Fed's July 29, 2026 meeting. Current market pricing shows high confidence that rates will not be cut below 3.50% by July, with only a 14% chance implied by markets that rates remain above 3.75%. This reflects the current federal funds rate of 3.63% as of May 2026.

Key factors:
- Federal funds rate at 3.63%
- 97% chance rates stay above 3.25% in July
- 94% chance rates stay above 3.50% in July
- Persistent interest rate level
- 14% chance rates stay above 3.75% in July

Contracts:
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps) — 81¢ Polymarket $4.8M (weight 23%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 11 (275 bps) — 0¢ Polymarket $3.9M (weight 19%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 10 (250 bps) — 0¢ Polymarket $3.8M (weight 19%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 9 (225 bps) — 0¢ Polymarket $3.2M (weight 16%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 6 (150 bps) — 0¢ Polymarket $2.9M (weight 14%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? — 2¢ Kalshi $1.5M (weight 7%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? — 99¢ Kalshi $137K (weight 1%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting? — 99¢ Kalshi $130K (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-07T06:40:32.790Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-rate-cut-july-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Fed%20cut%20rates%20in%20July%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev