53% — Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?
Kalshi 60% · Polymarket 27% · 19 contracts · $28.4M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-09-07 14:55:30 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 33pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, and prediction markets suggest it will remain above 3.50% following the Fed's September 16, 2026 meeting. There is a 50% market-implied probability that the rate will stay above 3.75%, indicating that significant rate cuts are not currently priced into the immediate outlook for mid-September.

Key factors:
- Current Fed funds rate at 3.63%
- High confidence in rates above 3.50%
- 50% probability of rates above 3.75%
- Limited expectations for immediate cuts

Contracts:
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps) — 93¢ Polymarket $8.1M (weight 29%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 11 (275 bps) — 0¢ Polymarket $5.3M (weight 19%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 10 (250 bps) — 0¢ Polymarket $4.9M (weight 17%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 9 (225 bps) — 0¢ Polymarket $4.3M (weight 15%)
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 6 (150 bps) — 0¢ Polymarket $4.1M (weight 14%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? — 50¢ Kalshi $577K (weight 2%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? — 1¢ Kalshi $398K (weight 1%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? — 99¢ Kalshi $260K (weight 1%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-07T06:40:44.350Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "53% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-rate-cut-july-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Fed%20cut%20rates%20in%20July%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev