42% — Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?
Kalshi 61% · Polymarket 19% · 27 contracts · $73.1M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:13:52 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 42pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, and prediction markets overwhelmingly indicate that rates will remain above 3.50% through September, showing virtually no expectation of a rate cut for July. Market participants are pricing in a high degree of confidence that rates will stay elevated, with a 59% chance the upper bound stays above 3.75% for the September meeting and an 84% chance it concludes the year above 3.50%.

Key factors:
- Current Fed funds rate 3.63%
- High confidence in sustained rates
- September rate floor sentiment
- December policy outlook

Contracts:
- Fed Decision in July?: No change — 85¢ Polymarket $23.5M (weight 32%)
- Fed Decision in July?: 25 bps increase — 14¢ Polymarket $17.1M (weight 23%)
- Fed Decision in July?: 50+ bps increase — 1¢ Polymarket $15.5M (weight 21%)
- Fed Decision in July?: 25 bps decrease — 0¢ Polymarket $13.8M (weight 19%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — 15¢ Kalshi $1.0M (weight 1%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — 99¢ Kalshi $802K (weight 1%)
- Fed rate cut by...?: July Meeting — 0¢ Polymarket $515K (weight 1%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — 2¢ Kalshi $239K (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-22T06:40:51.229Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-rate-cut-july-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Fed%20cut%20rates%20in%20July%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev