96% — Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?
Leader: Above 3.25% at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 9 contracts · $515 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:11:56 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The federal funds rate is currently 3.63%, and prediction markets indicate there is effectively no chance of a rate cut below 2.75% at the June 17, 2026 meeting. Market pricing at 99% for a rate above 2.75% suggests that investors anticipate interest rates will remain significantly elevated, far above any levels consistent with a June cut.

Key factors:
- Current Fed funds rate 3.63%
- 99% probability rates stay above 2.75%
- Persistent elevated rate cycle
- Market expectations of monetary stasis

Contracts:
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.25% — 96¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50% — 92¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 5%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 2.75% — 90¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 15%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.00% — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.25% — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50% — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50% — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.75% — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.259Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-rate-cut-june-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Fed%20cut%20rates%20in%20June%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev