97% — Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?
Leader: Above 3.50% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 15:24:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The Federal Reserve did not implement a rate cut in June 2026, as the actual federal funds rate as of August 2026 stood at 3.63%. Market data currently indicates that the Fed is maintaining interest rates above 4.00% through at least October 2026 with 54% probability, suggesting a policy environment that has remained restrictive rather than accommodative.

Key factors:
- Fed funds rate at 3.63%
- 54% chance of rates above 4.00% by October
- High probability of rates exceeding 3.50% in December
- Persistent core inflation at 3.34%

Contracts:
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50% — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.25% — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T15:20:51.517Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-rate-cut-june-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Fed%20cut%20rates%20in%20June%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev