97% — Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?
Leader: Above 3.00% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 7 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-26 12:33:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The federal funds rate was 3.63% as of June 2026, and prediction markets currently indicate a 78% probability that the upper bound will remain above 3.75% following the July 29, 2026 meeting. Market participants see little chance of a rate cut in July, as the probability of the rate staying above 3.50% following the September meeting is priced at 95%.

Key factors:
- Federal Funds Rate at 3.63%
- 78% chance of rates above 3.75% in July
- 95% chance of rates above 3.50% in September
- Limited expectations for near-term easing

Contracts:
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.00% — 97¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50% — 96¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 2.75% — 96¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.25% — 95¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.50% — 81¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.75% — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?: Above 3.75% — 22¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 90%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-26T12:20:49.929Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fed-rate-cut-june-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Fed%20cut%20rates%20in%20June%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev