38% — Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0
Leader: Exactly 1 at 38% · Kalshi 38% · 3 contracts · $7 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether the Federal Reserve will make zero interest rate changes between now and the end of 2026. The 23% probability reflects market expectations that the Fed will adjust rates at least once in the next seven months. The primary driver is the current inflation and employment environment. If inflation remains elevated or labor markets weaken unexpectedly, the Fed would be more likely to move rates, pushing this probability lower. Conversely, if inflation moderates toward the 2% target while employment stays resilient, a no-change scenario becomes more plausible. The Federal Reserve's policy meetings—particularly those in June and September 2026—and monthly inflation data releases (CPI reports) will provide critical signals that market participants will use to adjust expectations. Each major economic data point could shift this probability meaningfully as traders reassess the path of monetary policy.

Key factors:
- Current Fed funds rate level and inflation readings as of late April 2026 relative to the Fed's 2% target
- Employment data from monthly BLS releases, specifically whether unemployment remains below historical averages or begins to rise
- PCE and CPI inflation data published through end of 2026, particularly whether year-over-year measures sustain above or move below 2.5%
- Scheduled FOMC meeting dates in June, September, and December 2026, which are the windows where policy decisions occur
- Market pricing in fed funds futures contracts for specific meeting dates, which typically leads spot market probability adjustments

Contracts:
- Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?: Exactly 1 — 38¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 17%)
- Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?: Exactly 0 — 32¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 14%)
- Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?: Exactly 2 — 20¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 69%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.575Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fedchgcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20number%20of%20rate%20changes%20before%202027%20be%20exactly%200
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev