53% — Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0
Leader: Exactly 2 at 53% · Kalshi 53% · 3 contracts · $354 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 16:17:15 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026, currently priced at 37%. With less than six months remaining in the year, the probability reflects expectations about the Fed's reaction to inflation data, employment conditions, and economic growth. The market is pricing in a roughly two-thirds chance of at least one rate change before year-end. The primary drivers are upcoming inflation reports (CPI/PCE) scheduled through November and the Fed's remaining policy meetings in July, September, November, and December. Strong inflation readings would increase pressure for rate hikes; weaker data or economic slowdown signals could support holding steady. The July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, occurring in early weeks, will be a critical catalyst for establishing the Fed's near-term trajectory.

Key factors:
- Inflation data releases (CPI/PCE) between now and December will directly influence Fed decision-making at remaining four scheduled meetings
- Current market pricing implies 63% probability of at least one rate change, suggesting most traders expect the Fed to move before year-end
- Employment indicators and labor market strength over the next five months will be weighed alongside price pressures in Fed deliberations
- The 37% probability for exactly zero changes is the leading outcome but faces stiff competition from one-change scenarios (31%) and two-change scenarios (20%)
- Fed communication and forward guidance at July meeting will provide clarity on policymakers' inflation assessment and trigger immediate repricing

Contracts:
- Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?: Exactly 2 — 53¢ Kalshi $135 (weight 38%)
- Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?: Exactly 3 — 26¢ Kalshi $113 (weight 32%)
- Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?: Exactly 1 — 11¢ Kalshi $106 (weight 30%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-22T15:20:52.757Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "53% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fedchgcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20number%20of%20rate%20changes%20before%202027%20be%20exactly%200
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev