62% — Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026
Leader: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 at 62% · Kalshi 62% · 2 contracts · $611 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at its June 17, 2026 meeting with no dissenting votes among policymakers. At 56%, the market slightly favors this outcome over alternatives. The current level reflects two primary considerations: recent economic conditions and inflation trends that may or may not warrant rate adjustments, and the degree of consensus within the Fed's policy committee. The June 17 FOMC meeting itself will resolve this question, with outcomes hinging on employment data, inflation readings, and Fed communications in the weeks leading up to the decision. Market pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty remains, as the runner-up scenario of no-change-with-dissents trades at 39%.

Key factors:
- Recent Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data relative to the Fed's 2% target will influence both rate decision and voting unanimity
- Monthly employment reports and jobless claim trends through early June will inform policymaker assessments of labor market stability
- Fed officials' public statements and economic projections released before June 17 typically shift probability as they signal intended policy direction
- The difference between the 56% no-dissent scenario and the 39% dissent scenario suggests markets expect broad consensus but acknowledge meaningful internal debate among voting members
- Options on the upper bound trading at 95 cents for staying above 3.50% indicate high confidence rates remain elevated, supporting hold expectations

Contracts:
- Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026?: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0 — 62¢ Kalshi $166 (weight 27%)
- Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jun 2026?: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0 — 39¢ Kalshi $445 (weight 73%)

Cite as: "62% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fedcombo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Federal%20Funds%20Rate%20Decision%20be%20No%20change%20AND%20Dissents%20be%200%20for%20Jun%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev