78% — Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting Leader: Fed maintains rate at 78% · Kalshi 78% · 13 contracts · $539K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 11:11:59 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract measures whether the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged at their September 2027 meeting, which markets currently assess at 84% probability based on trading activity. The high probability reflects expectations that inflation will remain near target and economic conditions will stabilize by late 2027, reducing pressure for rate changes. The primary drivers moving this probability would be shifts in inflation data, labor market conditions, and Fed communications over the next 15 months. The next major catalyst is the Fed's September 2026 meeting in roughly three months, which will signal the Committee's near-term policy stance and inform expectations for 2027. Subsequent inflation reports, employment data, and any Fed guidance changes will incrementally adjust market expectations for the September 2027 outcome as traders refine their economic forecasts across the forecast horizon. Key factors: - Current market pricing shows 84% probability of no rate change in September 2027, with 15% probability assigned to a 25bps hike and minimal probability to cuts - The nearest-term contract (July 2026) shows 84% probability of no change, suggesting traders expect rate stability to persist through the intermediate term - September 2026 contracts price in 60% probability of no change and 3% probability of a 25bps cut, indicating some expectation of easing before 2027 - Trading volume is concentrated in the July 2026 near-term contract ($52,675 24h volume), with volume declining significantly for later-dated contracts - The outcome depends critically on inflation trajectory, labor market resilience, and Fed communication between now and September 2027—approximately 15 months of economic data and policy guidance remain to be released Contracts: - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate — 78¢ Kalshi $59 (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate — 57¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate — 55¢ Kalshi $383K (weight 71%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 42¢ Kalshi $152K (weight 28%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 27¢ Kalshi $514 (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 26¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 21¢ Kalshi $402 (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 17¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T10:20:51.258Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/feddecision Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20Hike%20rates%20by%20%3E25bps%20at%20their%20September%202027%20meeting Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev