89% — Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting Leader: Fed maintains rate at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 17 contracts · $402K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-17 15:48:52 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract predicts whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by more than 25 basis points at their September 2027 meeting, currently priced at 94% probability. The market is pricing in a significant likelihood of rate increases by that date, reflecting expectations that current economic conditions will warrant tightening. The 94% probability suggests traders expect inflation or economic growth concerns to persist, or that the Fed will need to normalize rates from current levels. Near-term contracts show the market expects rates to hold steady through mid-2026 before diverging—June and July 2026 maintain rates are priced above 90%, while September 2026 drops to 68%. The September 2027 meeting is 16 months away, giving substantial time for economic data to shift expectations. Key drivers include inflation trends, labor market strength, and Fed communications between now and that meeting. Key factors: - Current Fed funds rate level and trajectory through 2026-2027 will determine whether >25bps hikes are necessary or appropriate - Market expectations show high confidence in rate holds through summer 2026, but declining confidence in holds by September 2026 (68% vs 90%+), indicating a transition is priced in - Inflation data releases, employment reports, and Fed forward guidance over the next 16 months will be primary drivers of repricing - The contract's 94% probability significantly exceeds the near-term hold probabilities, suggesting market expects rate environment to shift materially between mid-2026 and September 2027 - Historical Fed hiking cycles and current economic baseline assumptions about growth and price stability will anchor trader positioning Contracts: - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate — 89¢ Kalshi $102K (weight 25%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate — 74¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate — 71¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate — 69¢ Kalshi $131 (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Fed maintains rate — 68¢ Kalshi $273 (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?: Fed maintains rate — 66¢ Kalshi $611 (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 19¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%) - Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-17T15:20:20.891Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/feddecision Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20Hike%20rates%20by%20%3E25bps%20at%20their%20September%202027%20meeting Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev