7% — Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting Leader: Christopher Waller at 7% · Kalshi 7% · 10 contracts · $379 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-17 14:46:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects the likelihood that at least one Federal Reserve official will dissent from the committee's policy decision at the April 2026 FOMC meeting. The 22% probability suggests markets assess dissent as unlikely but plausible. Dissent typically occurs when economic conditions or inflation trajectories diverge significantly from the Fed's consensus view. The key drivers are recent inflation readings and economic data—higher-than-expected inflation or growth could prompt a hawkish dissent favoring tighter policy, while weakness could trigger dovish dissent. The April 2026 FOMC meeting itself will resolve this directly when the committee votes and announces results, typically followed by detailed voting records showing any dissenters. Historical context shows dissent occurs sporadically, roughly 10-15% of the time in normal periods but more frequently during economic stress or policy divergence. Key factors: - April 2026 inflation data released before the FOMC meeting will determine whether officials perceive price pressures warranting policy disagreement - The Fed's current policy rate trajectory heading into April 2026 constrains how much room exists for genuine disagreement among governors and regional presidents - Recent FOMC dissents have been relatively rare in 2025-2026, suggesting consensus is currently stronger than historical averages - The composition of voting members in April 2026 versus prior meetings affects likelihood, as different regional Fed presidents hold rotating voting seats with varying policy preferences - Economic growth and employment data in March 2026 will provide the most recent conditions committee members evaluate before their April decision Contracts: - Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Christopher Waller — 7¢ Kalshi $191 (weight 50%) - Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Beth Hammack — 7¢ Kalshi $144 (weight 38%) - Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Lisa Cook — 7¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Lorie Logan — 6¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 3%) - Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Michelle Bowman — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Michael Barr — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Jerome Powell — 3¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 8%) - Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?: Anna Paulson — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-17T07:20:23.157Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/feddissent Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20dissent%20at%20the%20April%202026%20FOMC%20meeting Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev