17% — Will Peter Strzok be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027 Kalshi 17% · 19 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:39 UTC Why this matters: This reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood that Peter Strzok, the former FBI official who played a role in the Trump investigations, will face criminal charges by year-end 2026. The probability sits at 26%, suggesting traders view formal charges as unlikely but not remote within the timeframe. Movement in this probability would depend on prosecutorial decisions from the Trump Justice Department, which has signaled interest in reviewing alleged misconduct by officials involved in prior Trump investigations. Any formal criminal referral or indictment announcement would sharply increase the probability, while the arrival of 2027 without charges would resolve the question downward. Comparison markets show similar or higher probabilities for other figures in Democratic administrations or investigations, suggesting broader uncertainty about potential accountability efforts. Key factors: - Trump administration DOJ has explicitly reviewed conduct of FBI officials from 2016-2017 election investigations, making prosecution decisions more likely than under prior administrations - No charges have been filed against Strzok as of May 2026 despite years of public scrutiny, suggesting legal barriers or insufficient evidence by prosecutors' standards - Timeline is constrained to 8 months, making charges less likely than if the question extended further into 2027 - Related prosecution markets for Fauci (32¢), Omar (47¢), and Smith (32¢) show market pricing similar or higher, indicating broad uncertainty about accountability actions rather than unique factors favoring Strzok - Formal DOJ charging decision or indictment announcement would be the primary catalyst that could move this probability substantially Contracts: - Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Adam Schiff — 23¢ Kalshi $499 (weight 40%) - Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Tim Walz — 13¢ Kalshi $428 (weight 34%) - Will Barack Obama be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama — 5¢ Kalshi $113 (weight 9%) - Will Reid Hoffman be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Reid Hoffman — 15¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 5%) - Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Letitia James — 45¢ Kalshi $45 (weight 4%) - Will Gavin Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Gavin Newsom — 21¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 2%) - Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Ilhan Omar — 29¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 2%) - Will Keith Ellison be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Keith Ellison — 18¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 1%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.865Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/federalcharge Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Peter%20Strzok%20be%20charged%20with%20a%20any%20crime%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev