13% — Will Peter Strzok be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027 Kalshi 13% · 20 contracts · $19K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 13:33:44 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 17% chance that former FBI official Peter Strzok faces criminal charges before January 1, 2027—roughly six months away. The probability reflects that while Strzok has faced significant scrutiny and calls for prosecution from some lawmakers, no formal charges have materialized despite multiple investigations over the past several years. The current level suggests markets view prosecution as unlikely but not implausible. Key factors driving this assessment include the statute of limitations on potential underlying conduct, the political nature of any investigation, and prosecutorial discretion by relevant authorities. The main uncertainty driver would be any new federal indictment or announcement by the Department of Justice regarding investigation status before year-end. Key factors: - Strzok has not been charged despite multiple congressional investigations and DOJ inquiries dating back to 2017-2018, suggesting prosecutorial barriers exist - Statutes of limitations on potential misconduct related to his FBI work may be approaching expiration, creating a deadline effect for any prosecution - Relevant statutes of limitations typically expire 5-7 years after alleged conduct, with key events occurring in 2016-2017 - Any charges would likely require DOJ action, making prosecutorial discretion and current administration priorities material factors - Political context and potential motivations behind prosecution attempts may affect which charges, if any, could withstand legal scrutiny Contracts: - Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Anthony Fauci — 47¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 77%) - Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Ilhan Omar — 18¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%) - Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Letitia James — 12¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - Will Jack Smith be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Jack Smith — 16¢ Kalshi $986 (weight 5%) - Will Alvin Bragg be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Alvin Bragg — 8¢ Kalshi $676 (weight 4%) - Will Barack Obama be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama — 6¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 1%) - Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: John Brennan — 31¢ Kalshi $75 (weight 0%) - Will Joe Kent be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Joe Kent — 9¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T13:20:48.968Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/federalcharge Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Peter%20Strzok%20be%20charged%20with%20a%20any%20crime%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev