97% — Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035 be above 5.75% Leader: Above 1.00% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 20 contracts · $876 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract asks whether the Federal Reserve's upper bound for its target interest rate will exceed 5.75% by the end of 2035—roughly nine years away. At 67% probability, traders are betting this threshold will be breached, reflecting expectations that rates will remain elevated relative to historical norms or rise again following potential future rate cuts. The near-term path of inflation and labor market conditions will heavily influence this outcome. Related contracts show traders assigning low probabilities to rates staying below 1.50% by 2031 (suggesting rates are expected to rise substantially), but much higher uncertainty about whether they'll exceed 6.00% by 2029. The Fed's actual policy trajectory over the next three years will be the dominant signal; if inflation proves sticky or labor demand remains strong, sustained higher rates become more likely, raising the probability this threshold is met. Key factors: - Current federal funds rate upper bound is 5.33% as of mid-2026; reaching 5.75% requires an increase of approximately 42 basis points or sustained elevated policy rates - Related Kalshi contracts show only 5% probability of rates exceeding 6.00% by end-2029, suggesting most path-dependent probability mass is in 5.50-5.75% range by 2035 - Market pricing of intermediate thresholds (1.50% by 2031, 2.25% by 2032) indicates expectation of multiple rate adjustment cycles over the nine-year window - Inflation persistence, labor market tightness, and geopolitical shocks between now and 2035 will drive Fed policy decisions and determine whether restrictive rates persist - The contract depends on Fed maintaining upper bound above 5.75% specifically on December 31, 2035; temporary excursions or earlier peaks do not resolve the question Contracts: - Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.00%?: Above 1.00% — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%?: Above 1.25% — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.50%?: Above 1.50% — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?: Above 1.75% — 93¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.00%?: Above 2.00% — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.25%?: Above 2.25% — 85¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%) - Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?: Above 2.50% — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.75%?: Above 2.75% — 82¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.533Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fedfundsyear Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20upper%20bound%20of%20the%20target%20range%20for%20the%20federal%20funds%20rate%20in%20effect%20at%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20December%2031%2C%202035%20be%20above%205.75%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev