6% — Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Leader: Stephen Miran at 6% · Kalshi 6% · 4 contracts · $20 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 11:12:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects the estimated probability that Rick Rieder will be Trump's next Federal Reserve Board nominee, currently at 24% as the leading candidate in a four-outcome prediction market. The probability is driven by Rieder's background in finance and prior policy discussions, though he faces competition from other potential nominees like Stephen Miran and Kevin Hassett. The main factors affecting this probability are shifts in Trump's economic policy priorities, any public statements signaling his Federal Reserve appointment strategy, and developments in the broader political and economic environment that might make certain candidates more or less attractive. Resolution will occur when Trump either makes a public nomination announcement or the window for such appointments closes. Until then, the probability reflects genuine uncertainty about Trump's final selection from the candidate pool.

Key factors:
- Rieder's current role and visibility in financial/policy circles relative to competing nominees
- Public signals from Trump or his advisors about Federal Reserve appointment preferences
- Turnover or vacancy announcements on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Changes in economic conditions or policy debates that might shift preference toward specific candidate profiles
- Any direct statements or media reporting about which candidates are under serious consideration

Contracts:
- Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Stephen Miran — 6¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 48%)
- Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Judy Shelton — 4¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 52%)
- Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Kevin Hassett — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Trump next nominate Michelle Bowman as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?: Michelle Bowman — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T10:20:49.938Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fedgovnom
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20next%20nominate%20Rick%20Rieder%20as%20member%20of%20the%20Board%20of%20Governors%20of%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20System
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev