95% — Will Powell say Softening at his Apr 2026 press conference
Leader: Projection at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 18 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 07:44:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will Kevin Warsh say Projection at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Projection — 95¢ Kalshi $414 (weight 6%)
- Will Kevin Warsh say Good Afternoon at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Good Afternoon — 81¢ Kalshi $114 (weight 2%)
- Will Kevin Warsh say Oil at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Oil — 79¢ Kalshi $420 (weight 6%)
- Will Kevin Warsh say President at his Jun 2026 press conference?: President — 63¢ Kalshi $843 (weight 11%)
- Will Kevin Warsh say Iran at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Iran — 57¢ Kalshi $167 (weight 2%)
- Will Kevin Warsh say Restrictive at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Restrictive — 53¢ Kalshi $122 (weight 2%)
- Will Kevin Warsh say Layoff at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Layoff — 53¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 0%)
- Will Kevin Warsh say Dissent at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Dissent — 29¢ Kalshi $144 (weight 2%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-17T07:20:23.157Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fedmention
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Powell%20say%20Softening%20at%20his%20Apr%202026%20press%20conference
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev