18% — Will Powell say Softening at his Apr 2026 press conference
Polymarket 23% · Kalshi 15% · 8 contracts · $125K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:22:48 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 8pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before June — 10¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 15%)
- Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? — 35¢ Polymarket $26K (weight 14%)
- Will Trump say "Who are you with / Where are you from" before May 4, 2026?: Who are you with / Where are you from — 17¢ Kalshi $21K (weight 14%)
- Will Trump say "Karoline / Leavitt" before May 4, 2026?: Karoline / Leavitt — 23¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 14%)
- Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before July — 19¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 13%)
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? — 10¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 13%)
- Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 27, 2026 to May 3, 2026?: Above 50 — 17¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 13%)
- Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Kirill Kaprizov — 4¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 4%)

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fedmention
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Powell%20say%20Softening%20at%20his%20Apr%202026%20press%20conference
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev