57% — Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement contains no forward-looking guidance regarding the likely future path of the federal funds rate before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: Presser Skipped at 57% · Kalshi 57% · 4 contracts · $325 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market contracts track the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will substantially alter its standard communication practices before year-end 2026. The "Dot Plot Omitted" contract—currently the highest-priced outcome at 65%—reflects market expectations that the Summary of Economic Projections may exclude individual participants' federal-funds-rate forecasts. The leading indicator is market uncertainty about potential Federal Reserve operational changes in response to political or economic pressures. The probability would rise if there are signals of structural policy changes or leadership transitions; it would fall if the Fed signals continuity in its communication framework. The primary resolution catalyst is the Fed's regular policy meetings and economic projections releases scheduled throughout the remainder of 2026, particularly any announced changes to post-meeting communication protocols or the December meeting outcome.

Key factors:
- The "Dot Plot Omitted" contract trades at 65¢ versus "Forward Guidance Removed" at only 49¢, suggesting market participants view omitting rate projections as more likely than removing forward guidance entirely
- The "Presser Skipped" contract at 60¢ indicates moderate probability of a cancelled post-meeting press conference, which could signal related communication changes
- Extreme low prices on "Reserve President Removed" (5¢) and "Reserve President Rejected" (6¢) suggest minimal market expectation of personnel disruptions that might trigger broader operational changes
- The 7-month timeframe to resolution (through December 2026) spans multiple regularly scheduled FOMC meetings where communication structure could be modified
- Kalshi volume remains relatively light across all contracts ($652–$2730 per contract in 24 hours), suggesting limited consensus and high model dependence

Contracts:
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Federal Reserve Chair does not hold a press conference following a regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting before Jan 1, 2027?: Presser Skipped — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections before Jan 1, 2027?: Dot Plot Omitted — 55¢ Kalshi $325 (weight 100%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement emphasizes trimmed-mean or median inflation measures before Jan 1, 2027?: Trimmed Mean Emphasized — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Board of Governors does not approve the reappointment of a Federal Reserve Bank president before Jan 1, 2027?: Reserve President Rejected — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.231Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "57% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fedreform
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20reported%20by%20any%20of%20the%20Source%20Agencies%20that%20a%20Federal%20Open%20Market%20Committee%20post-meeting%20statement%20contains%20no%20forward-looking%20guidance%20regarding%20the%20likely%20future%20path%20of%20the%20federal%20funds%20rate%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev