65% — How many Federal Reserve posts on X the week ending on Jun 4, 2026 Leader: >17 at 65% · Kalshi 65% · 2 contracts · $728 volume · low confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract measures the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will publish between 12 and 14 posts on X (formerly Twitter) during the week of May 26 to June 4, 2026. At 9%, the current odds suggest traders believe this outcome is unlikely compared to alternatives. The Federal Reserve's social media activity can vary based on policy announcements, economic data releases, and regular communication schedules. The primary driver of this probability is the Fed's pre-established communication calendar during this period. If significant economic data is released or policy decisions occur, posting volume may increase. If the week is relatively quiet on the policy front, posts may fall below or exceed the 12-14 range. The single biggest factor determining the final outcome is whether a Federal Open Market Committee meeting or major economic announcement occurs during this specific week, which would directly influence official communication volume. Key factors: - Historical baseline: Average Federal Reserve X posting frequency over recent comparable weeks (roughly 8-12 posts per week) establishes a reference for the 12-14 range probability - Scheduled events: Presence of FOMC meetings, economic data releases, or policy announcements during May 26-June 4 would predictably increase posting activity - Communication policy shifts: Any changes to Fed communication strategy or social media protocols introduced before June 4 would alter expected posting volume - Competing contract prices: The 9-11 range (7¢) and 15-17 range (7¢) both trading higher suggests markets see 12-14 as a less-likely middle ground - No recent volume: Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts indicates low market confidence or consensus in current pricing Contracts: - How many Federal Reserve posts on X the week ending on Jun 4, 2026?: >17 — 65¢ Kalshi $712 (weight 98%) - How many Federal Reserve posts on X the week ending on Jun 4, 2026?: 15-17 — 22¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 2%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-04T19:20:13.057Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fedtweets Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20Federal%20Reserve%20posts%20on%20X%20the%20week%20ending%20on%20Jun%204%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev