22% — How high will the price of fertilizer get this year
Leader: Above $1100 at 22% · Kalshi 22% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 15:18:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Traders currently assess a 42% chance that fertilizer prices will exceed a specific threshold this year, with disagreement between markets suggesting genuine uncertainty. Fertilizer prices are driven by global supply constraints, energy costs (particularly natural gas for ammonia production), agricultural demand cycles, and geopolitical factors affecting major producers like Russia and China. The upcoming planting season and quarterly agricultural commodity reports will clarify demand signals, while any supply disruptions or energy price movements could significantly shift these probabilities. The 11-percentage-point gap between venues indicates traders weigh different factors—some emphasizing near-term supply tightness, others anticipating price moderation as the year progresses.

Key factors:
- Natural gas pricing trends directly impact ammonia and urea production costs, representing 30-40% of fertilizer manufacturing expenses
- Global grain planting intentions and soil nutrient depletion data release in coming months will establish demand baseline for Q2-Q4 2026
- Russian and Belarusian fertilizer export volumes remain subject to sanctions and geopolitical developments affecting supply
- Current inventory levels at ports and distribution hubs determine how quickly prices respond to production changes or demand shocks
- Historical fertilizer price volatility during spring application season typically peaks April-June, making seasonal timing a structural factor

Contracts:
- How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1100 — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1000 — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1200 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1300 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.708Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fert
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20high%20will%20the%20price%20of%20fertilizer%20get%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev