8% — How high will the price of fertilizer get this year
Leader: Above $1000 at 8% · Kalshi 8% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-23 00:59:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 16% probability indicates traders assess a modest chance that fertilizer prices will exceed $1,100 per ton by year-end 2026. The low probability reflects expectations that prices will remain constrained, likely anchored to current market levels and seasonal patterns typical for the second half of the year. Fertilizer prices are driven primarily by global supply dynamics—particularly production capacity and export availability from major producing regions—and demand signals from agricultural plantings and economic conditions. Upward pressure would come from supply disruptions, geopolitical events affecting exports, or stronger-than-expected crop demand. The contract price ladder shows confidence rapidly diminishes for higher price levels, with only 3% probability assigned to exceeding $1,300. Key upcoming inputs include crop condition reports through harvest season, global fertilizer inventory data, and any major production or logistics disruptions that would shift supply-demand expectations for the remainder of 2026.

Key factors:
- Current fertilizer price benchmark relative to $1,100 strike: actual spot and futures prices as of late June 2026 establish whether the market sees 16% as undervalued or reasonable
- Global nitrogen and phosphate production capacity utilization rates and any announced maintenance or disruption at major facilities through December 2026
- Crop condition and yield forecasts from Northern Hemisphere harvest (August-October), which signal demand for post-harvest nutrient applications and inform 2027 planning fertilizer purchases
- Export availability and logistics from key producing regions (Russia, China, North Africa) and any geopolitical or regulatory changes affecting international trade flows
- Historical price volatility and seasonality patterns: whether price spikes tend to occur in Q3-Q4 or if summer represents the typical seasonal peak

Contracts:
- How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1000 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1100 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?: Above $1200 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-23T00:20:49.627Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fert
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20high%20will%20the%20price%20of%20fertilizer%20get%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev