78% — Syria vs Iran Winner
Leader: USA at 78% · Kalshi 78% · 2 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 21:47:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 3% probability represents the estimated chance that Syria will militarily defeat Iran in a direct conflict. The low odds reflect Iran's significant military advantages, including a larger defense budget, advanced weapons systems, and established regional military infrastructure. The probability could shift substantially based on geopolitical realignments, international military support to either party, or unexpected escalations of existing tensions. Key catalysts would include any direct military engagement, shifts in international alliances affecting military capability, or significant changes in regional stability that alter the strategic balance between the two nations.

Key factors:
- Iran's military spending and armed forces are substantially larger than Syria's, with more advanced naval, air defense, and ballistic missile capabilities
- Syria's military has been significantly degraded by its civil war since 2011, affecting operational readiness and equipment availability
- Direct Syrian-Iranian military conflict would likely depend on regional geopolitical shifts or involvement of supporting powers rather than autonomous escalation
- International intervention or military support to either nation could materially change the projected outcome
- The current market price reflects very low probability, suggesting participants view such a conflict as unlikely under foreseeable circumstances

Contracts:
- USA vs Mexico Winner?: USA — 78¢ Kalshi $717 (weight 33%)
- USA vs Mexico Winner?: Mexico — 19¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 67%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-07T07:20:51.211Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fibagame
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Syria%20vs%20Iran%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev