80% — Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026 Leader: Jacob Tsimerman at 80% · Kalshi 80% · 10 contracts · $832 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-17 00:14:50 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: The 83% probability for Hong Wang reflects market consensus that he is the leading candidate among mathematical researchers for the 2026 Fields Medal, awarded biennially to mathematicians under 40 for outstanding achievement. Markets price Wang significantly ahead of Jacob Tsimerman (63¢), John Pardon (41¢), and other contenders. The probability will shift based on recent publication records, citation impact, and peer assessments of breakthrough results in the months leading to the August 2026 announcement. The International Mathematical Union will announce the four winners in mid-August 2026, which serves as the hard resolution date. Until then, market pricing reflects evolving perceptions of each candidate's research contributions and the overall strength of the field. Key factors: - Hong Wang's contract price (82¢) significantly exceeds the second-place candidate (Jacob Tsimerman at 63¢), suggesting market confidence rather than high uncertainty - The 2026 Fields Medal ceremony occurs in August 2026, creating a defined resolution window where new publications or announcements could alter market perception - Polymarket contract volumes are modest ($6–$22 per contract in 24h), indicating limited market depth and potential sensitivity to new information from mathematics conferences or preprint repositories - The four-person medal award structure means even the leading candidate faces a multi-outcome risk; market odds do not reflect certainty - Earlier recognition signals—such as peer nominations, conference prominence, or major theorem announcements between now and summer 2026—will directly inform final market pricing Contracts: - Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Jacob Tsimerman — 80¢ Kalshi $59 (weight 7%) - Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Hong Wang — 77¢ Kalshi $745 (weight 89%) - Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Yu Deng — 56¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 2%) - Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: John Pardon — 56¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 2%) - Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Jack Thorne — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Aleksandr Logunov — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Sam Raskin — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Julian Sahasrabudhe — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-16T23:20:48.079Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fields Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20Fields%20Medal%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev