11% — 2026 FIFA World Cup
Polymarket 11% · 17 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-24 23:38:48 UTC

Contracts:
- 2026 FIFA World Cup: Nation to Reach Final: Brazil — 23¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 17%)
- 2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make England Squad: Cole Palmer — 3¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 15%)
- 2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer: Julian Alvarez — 5¢ Polymarket $847 (weight 7%)
- 2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer: Cristiano Ronaldo — 4¢ Polymarket $839 (weight 7%)
- 2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe — 14¢ Polymarket $746 (weight 6%)
- 2026 FIFA World Cup: Nation to Reach Final: Mexico — 7¢ Polymarket $632 (weight 5%)
- FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages: Ivory Coast — 75¢ Polymarket $588 (weight 5%)
- 2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make England Squad: Phil Foden — 3¢ Polymarket $588 (weight 5%)
- ... and 9 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-24T23:20:09.370Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fifa-world-cup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20FIFA%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev