54% — FIFA World Cup Group F Winner
Leader: Netherlands at 54% · Polymarket 54% · 4 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the Netherlands will finish first in Group F of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 55% probability suggests traders view the Netherlands as the clear favorite, but not dominant—roughly twice as likely as the second-place candidate (Japan at 27%). The Netherlands' rating likely reflects their UEFA ranking, recent tournament performance, and squad depth compared to Japan, Tunisia, and Sweden. Group composition, head-to-head records, and injury status heading into the tournament drive uncertainty. The outcome resolves on the final group-stage matchday in June 2026, when all remaining matches are played simultaneously. Major shifts would follow official squad announcements, recent international friendlies, or unexpected roster changes.

Key factors:
- Netherlands holds an estimated 55% implied probability of topping Group F, compared to Japan at 27%, indicating traders see a significant but not overwhelming edge
- The four contracts show wide spreads (Netherlands 55¢ to Tunisia 5¢), suggesting material uncertainty about group outcomes and conditional probabilities
- Netherlands' contract maintains the highest 24-hour trading volume ($453) among Group F outcomes, though volumes remain relatively modest (suggesting limited institutional participation)
- Japan's 27% probability places it as the primary competitive threat; Japan's performance in warm-up matches and confirmed roster would materially shift the distribution
- Group F composition and scheduling (notably which team plays which opponent in each round) affects path-dependent outcomes and strength-of-schedule considerations

Contracts:
- World Cup Group F Winner: Netherlands — 54¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 49%)
- World Cup Group F Winner: Japan — 28¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 32%)
- World Cup Group F Winner: Sweden — 14¢ Polymarket $382 (weight 9%)
- World Cup Group F Winner: Tunisia — 6¢ Polymarket $437 (weight 10%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.765Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "54% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fifa-world-cup-group-f-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=FIFA%20World%20Cup%20Group%20F%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev