63% — FIFA World Cup Group G Winner
Leader: Belgium at 63% · Polymarket 63% · 4 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 07:23:47 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 80% probability represents the likelihood that one specific team will finish first in Group G of the FIFA World Cup. The probability is driven by the composition of Group G teams, their recent form, and historical performance in international competitions. Teams ranked higher in world rankings and with stronger recent results command higher prices. The main resolution catalyst is the completion of Group G matches during the tournament, currently scheduled for late 2026. Shifts in this probability would reflect updated injury reports, pre-tournament friendlies that alter perceived strength, or significant changes in team composition through qualifying or last-minute roster decisions.

Key factors:
- Current market structure shows leader at 80% with runner-up at 76%, indicating two teams assessed as closely competitive within Group G
- Polymarket volume varies significantly across contracts ($453–$2437 24h), suggesting differential confidence in different outcomes and potential liquidity constraints
- The top contract (Japan, 27¢) competes across multiple group predictions, indicating traders assess probabilities across overlapping tournament segments
- Absence of real-time injury data or recent official roster announcements means market prices reflect historical standings and qualification-phase form rather than tournament-specific updates
- Multi-outcome winner-take-all structure concentrates probability mass on leading teams rather than distributing it evenly across all Group G participants

Contracts:
- World Cup Group G Winner: Belgium — 63¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 14%)
- World Cup Group G Winner: Egypt — 26¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 26%)
- World Cup Group G Winner: Iran — 7¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 32%)
- World Cup Group G Winner: New Zealand — 3¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 28%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "63% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fifa-world-cup-group-g-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=FIFA%20World%20Cup%20Group%20G%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev