15% — Will Amanda be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026
Kalshi 15% · 7 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:04:35 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates an 8% probability that Amanda will be the first named hurricane to form in the Eastern Pacific during the 2026 season. Hurricane formation depends on ocean temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and the timing of storm development relative to the Atlantic basin, where storms typically form first in the annual cycle. The low probability reflects that Atlantic hurricanes historically tend to develop before Eastern Pacific ones, as shown by markets pricing Arthur at 30% for the Atlantic. The market will resolve once the National Hurricane Center officially designates the first hurricane in each basin, likely between June and September 2026 when peak season activity occurs.

Key factors:
- Atlantic basin development historically precedes Eastern Pacific by several weeks on average, currently priced at roughly 4x the Eastern Pacific probability
- Sea surface temperature patterns through July-August 2026 will determine whether conditions favor early Eastern Pacific intensification over Atlantic activity
- The official National Hurricane Center hurricane designation is the sole determinant for resolution, requiring wind speeds of 74+ mph and official naming
- Kalshi volume concentration ($128 24h on Arthur vs $11-16 on other contracts) indicates significantly higher market interest in Atlantic first-hurricane outcomes
- Seasonal timing: if both basins remain relatively quiet through mid-July, Eastern Pacific probability would likely increase as ocean warming progresses

Contracts:
- Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Bertha — 21¢ Kalshi $539 (weight 26%)
- Will Arthur be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Arthur — 22¢ Kalshi $534 (weight 26%)
- Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Edouard — 10¢ Kalshi $442 (weight 21%)
- Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Cristobal — 17¢ Kalshi $375 (weight 18%)
- Will Boris be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Boris — 15¢ Kalshi $117 (weight 6%)
- Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Dolly — 9¢ Kalshi $59 (weight 3%)
- Will Elida be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Elida — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.507Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/firsthurricane
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Amanda%20be%20the%20first%20named%20hurricane%20in%20the%20Eastern%20Pacific%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev