88% — What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary
Leader: South Carolina at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 05:06:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market pricing on which state will hold the first Democratic presidential primary election. New Hampshire and South Carolina are currently tied at 37% each, while Nevada trails at 16%, indicating substantial uncertainty about the Democratic National Committee's calendar decisions. The outcome hinges primarily on formal DNC rulings and state legislative actions, as both New Hampshire and South Carolina have competing claims to early positioning based on traditional precedent and recent party initiatives. The Democratic Party's official calendar announcement and any subsequent state-level legislative changes will be the decisive factor in resolving this question. Historical precedent, state party negotiations, and potential legal challenges could shift probabilities significantly in either direction.

Key factors:
- New Hampshire and South Carolina are tied at identical 37% odds, suggesting markets view both states as equally plausible frontrunners despite competing historical and political claims
- Nevada's 16% probability indicates it is viewed as a meaningful but secondary contender, reflecting uncertainty about whether the DNC will maintain its stated preference for Nevada over New Hampshire
- The DNC's official primary calendar announcement and any subsequent state legislative actions (particularly in New Hampshire) will directly determine which state actually goes first
- New Hampshire's historical 'first-in-the-nation' status creates path-dependent expectations, but South Carolina's recent elevation by the DNC creates competing institutional claims
- The combined 74% probability assigned to New Hampshire and South Carolina versus 16% for Nevada suggests the market has largely excluded other states from contention

Contracts:
- What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: South Carolina — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: New Hampshire — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-16T19:20:51.799Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/firstprimaryd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20state%20will%20be%20first%20in%20the%20Democratic%20presidential%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev