37% — What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary
Leader: New Hampshire at 37% · Kalshi 37% · 3 contracts · $14 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that Iowa will be the first state to hold a Democratic primary election in the 2028 presidential cycle. The 41% estimate sits between two major prediction venues, with a modest 3-point gap suggesting some disagreement about the likelihood. The outcome hinges primarily on whether the Democratic National Committee maintains its traditional calendar—Iowa has historically opened the primary season for decades—or whether recent reform efforts gain traction to reorder states. The Democratic National Committee's final calendar decision, expected well before 2028, will be the critical catalyst that resolves most uncertainty around this question. Until that official determination, markets will reflect ongoing debate about whether party leadership prioritizes tradition versus attempts to increase representation from earlier-voting demographics.

Key factors:
- DNC has signaled openness to calendar changes for 2028, having already modified 2024 calendar with South Carolina as first official contest
- Iowa's historical front-loaded status has faced criticism from party reformers seeking earlier participation from more diverse states
- No formal DNC calendar decision has been announced for 2028, leaving substantial uncertainty about institutional direction
- Contract volume and pricing consistency across Kalshi and Polymarket suggest modest confidence rather than high conviction in either direction
- Iowa's current 41% probability implies roughly 3-in-7 odds, consistent with it being a leading but not dominant candidate among potential first-state slots

Contracts:
- What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: New Hampshire — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: South Carolina — 28¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 100%)
- What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary?: Nevada — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.901Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/firstprimaryd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20state%20will%20be%20first%20in%20the%20Democratic%20presidential%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev