17% — Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before May 3, 2026
Kalshi 17% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:30:39 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects a 17% chance that legislation reauthorizing FISA Section 702 authority becomes law before January 1, 2027. Section 702 permits surveillance of foreign targets without a warrant, expiring periodically and requiring congressional reauthorization. The low probability suggests the market expects significant political or procedural obstacles to passage. Key drivers of this forecast include ongoing bipartisan privacy concerns, potential conflation with other surveillance reform debates, and legislative calendar constraints. The timing matters because reauthorization typically occurs under time pressure, and disagreement over civil liberties protections or operational scope could delay passage beyond the deadline. Congressional action in late 2026 would be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty, as lawmakers traditionally address expiring authorities in year-end legislative pushes.

Key factors:
- Section 702 expires periodically and reauthorization requires affirmative congressional vote; failure to pass before the deadline would allow the authority to lapse
- Bipartisan coalitions have historically demanded reforms to 702 surveillance procedures, creating potential friction in negotiations that could extend timelines or prevent passage
- Legislative calendar capacity in 2026, particularly competing priorities in an election year, affects available floor time for reauthorization debates
- Previous 702 reauthorizations have typically occurred through larger bills or last-minute provisions, suggesting dependency on broader legislative vehicles or end-of-session timing
- The 17% probability indicates market participants expect reauthorization to occur after January 1, 2027, such as in a post-election session or following expiration

Contracts:
- Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T00:20:49.052Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fisaextend
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20that%20reauthorizes%20FISA%20Section%20702%20authority%20become%20law%20before%20May%203%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev