27% — Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before May 3, 2026
Kalshi 27% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:55 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation reauthorizing FISA Section 702 surveillance authority by May 3, 2026—roughly three days from now. The 45% aggregate probability reflects significant uncertainty about whether lawmakers can move such legislation quickly through the legislative process. Section 702 is a contentious issue with both civil liberties advocates and national security officials taking strong positions, which typically slows passage. The cross-venue gap of 15 percentage points, with Polymarket pricing higher, suggests disagreement about how urgently Congress will act. The main driver of this probability is whether a clean reauthorization bill or a broader package containing Section 702 can advance through both chambers without extended debate or amendment conflicts. The immediate catalyst is the end-of-session legislative calendar over the next 72 hours, which will determine whether this authority receives priority floor time.

Key factors:
- Current legislative calendar status: whether Section 702 reauthorization is scheduled for floor votes in either chamber before May 3
- Status of related spending bills: the top contracts show DHS funding legislation is more heavily traded, suggesting Section 702 may be bundled into broader legislative packages that move on different timelines
- Amendment threat risk: proposals to modify Section 702 (privacy protections, warrant requirements) could delay passage if offered during floor debate
- Senate-House coordination: one chamber may pass reauthorization while the other delays, preventing both chambers from completing action within the 72-hour window
- Previous reauthorization patterns: Section 702 extensions have historically required multiple renewal cycles, with 2024's extension resolved relatively quickly, providing a baseline for current legislative velocity

Contracts:
- Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.912Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fisaextend
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20that%20reauthorizes%20FISA%20Section%20702%20authority%20become%20law%20before%20May%203%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev