59% — Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 1 year become law before Jan 1, 2028
Leader: At least 90 days at 59% · Kalshi 59% · 4 contracts · $57 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:36 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 45% chance that Congress will pass a FISA Section 702 reauthorization extending surveillance authority for at least one year before the end of 2027. Section 702 permits warrantless surveillance of foreign intelligence targets and has been contested in Congress, with past renewals requiring contentious negotiations between civil liberties advocates and national security officials. The market reflects uncertainty about whether lawmakers will reach consensus on extension terms before the deadline. The strongest near-term signals come from other related contracts showing 56-61% probability of any reauthorization passing by early May 2026, suggesting active legislative motion. The wide gap between the 90-day extension (6¢) and 1-year extension (45¢) probabilities indicates traders believe Congress faces significant pressure to act but may compromise on shorter timelines if full-year extensions prove politically difficult.

Key factors:
- High probability (56-61%) of reauthorization activity occurring by early May 2026 suggests imminent legislative action
- Sharp drop-off in probability for shorter extensions (6% for 90 days) versus 1-year extensions (45%) indicates disagreement among traders about likely negotiated terms
- 16-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (60%) and Kalshi (44%) suggests venues or trader pools weight similar information differently
- Section 702 reauthorization has historically involved protracted negotiations; current market reflects past patterns where civil liberties and surveillance concerns delay consensus
- Deadline of Jan 1, 2028 provides approximately 20 months for legislative activity from today, compressing options for multiple renewal attempts

Contracts:
- Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 90 days become law before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 90 days — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 30 days become law before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 30 days — 57¢ Kalshi $57 (weight 100%)
- Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 1 year become law before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 1 year — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after Issuance extends the authority by at least 2 years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 2 years — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.492Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "59% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fisalength
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20first%20FISA%20Section%20702%20reauthorization%20enacted%20after%20Issuance%20extends%20the%20authority%20by%20at%20least%201%20year%20become%20law%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202028
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev