74% — FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK
Leader: FK Bodø/Glimt at 74% · Polymarket 74% · 3 contracts · $327 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the estimated probability that FK Bodø/Glimt defeats Molde FK in an upcoming Norwegian football match. The 90% probability reflects strong market confidence in Bodø/Glimt's win, likely driven by relative team form, head-to-head record, or current league standing. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty when played—the outcome depends on in-game performance, injuries, tactical execution, and match circumstances. Spread contracts suggest confidence extends to victory margins: Bodø/Glimt winning by 1.5+ is priced at 50¢, while 2.5+ is only 29¢, indicating markets expect a narrow or moderate win rather than a dominant one. Low liquidity in some contracts and the gap between the leading probability (90%) and secondary contracts suggests potential disagreement on the precise margin of victory despite consensus on the winner.

Key factors:
- FK Bodø/Glimt's -1.5 spread trades at 50¢ but -2.5 at only 29¢, indicating markets expect a narrow or single-goal victory rather than a blowout
- The over/under contracts (2.5 at 74¢, 3.5 at 53¢) suggest relatively low expected goal totals, constraining how dominant any victory could be
- Molde FK's -2.5 contract prices at only 6¢, revealing near-zero perceived probability of a 2.5+ goal defeat despite being the runner-up outcome at 74%
- Low trading volume on higher-margin and Molde contracts suggests limited disagreement but also minimal recent price discovery or new information flow
- The 90% leader price substantially exceeds typical Polymarket average prices (42%), creating a gap that could reflect either genuine confidence or thin liquidity concentrating market opinion

Contracts:
- FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: FK Bodø/Glimt — 74¢ Polymarket $68 (weight 21%)
- FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: Draw (FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK) — 15¢ Polymarket $204 (weight 62%)
- FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK: Molde FK — 12¢ Polymarket $55 (weight 17%)

Cite as: "74% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=FK%20Bod%C3%B8%2FGlimt%20vs.%20Molde%20FK
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev