51% — FK Dukla Praha vs. FC Baník Ostrava: FC Baník Ostrava
Polymarket 51% · 1 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:37:08 UTC

Why this matters:
This 49% probability indicates a near even-odds assessment of FC Baník Ostrava winning their match against FK Dukla Praha. The market pricing reflects uncertainty typical of Czech football matchups where both teams operate at similar competitive levels. Recent form, home-field advantage, and injury status are likely anchoring the probability near the 50% midpoint. The match outcome will resolve this contract when the game concludes, eliminating all remaining uncertainty around the final result. Trading volume of $72,836 in 24 hours suggests moderate but not exceptional market interest in this specific fixture.

Key factors:
- Current league standings and recent win-loss records for both FK Dukla Praha and FC Baník Ostrava in the 2025-26 season
- Head-to-head historical performance between these two teams, including goals scored and defensive records in prior matchups
- Confirmed team news regarding key player injuries, suspensions, or roster absences as of match day
- Home-field advantage for whichever team is hosting, including typical win rates at their respective stadiums
- Recent form trajectory for both teams in their last 5-10 matches, accounting for strength of schedule

Contracts:
- FK Dukla Praha vs. FC Baník Ostrava: FC Baník Ostrava — 51¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-24T07:20:13.311Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fk-dukla-praha-vs-fc-bank-ostrava-fc-bank-ostrava
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=FK%20Dukla%20Praha%20vs.%20FC%20Ban%C3%ADk%20Ostrava%3A%20FC%20Ban%C3%ADk%20Ostrava
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev