25% — FK Dukla Praha vs. FC Baník Ostrava: FK Dukla Praha
Polymarket 25% · 1 contracts · $504 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:37:08 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 26% probability that FK Dukla Praha defeats FC Baník Ostrava in their matchup. The relatively low probability suggests betting markets view Baník Ostrava as the favored team. The current odds likely reflect recent form, head-to-head records, and current league standings in the Czech First League. The match outcome will be determined once the game concludes, which is the primary event that resolves this uncertainty. Market participants typically weight factors such as recent winning streaks, home-field advantage, player injuries or suspensions, and tactical matchups when pricing probabilities for football matches.

Key factors:
- FK Dukla Praha's recent performance record compared to Baník Ostrava in the 2025-26 Czech First League season
- Head-to-head historical results and goal differential between these two clubs over their recent matchups
- Current league table positions, goal differential, and points accumulated by each team as of market pricing date
- Availability and injury status of key players for both sides, particularly starting strikers or defensive leaders
- Home-field advantage dynamics and each team's record in away matches versus home matches this season

Contracts:
- FK Dukla Praha vs. FC Baník Ostrava: FK Dukla Praha — 25¢ Polymarket $504 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-24T07:20:13.311Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fk-dukla-praha-vs-fc-bank-ostrava-fk-dukla-praha
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=FK%20Dukla%20Praha%20vs.%20FC%20Ban%C3%ADk%20Ostrava%3A%20FK%20Dukla%20Praha
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev