29% — Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19
Kalshi 29% · 3 contracts · $25 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:33 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the estimated chance that Madison Cawthorn will win the Republican primary for Florida's 19th congressional district. At 29%, markets suggest he faces meaningful competition, though he remains a plausible contender. The probability is driven by Cawthorn's existing political profile and fundraising capacity against potential challengers within the district's Republican electorate. Factors supporting higher odds include name recognition from his previous congressional service; factors supporting lower odds include questions about electoral viability following his 2022 primary loss and subsequent controversies. The primary election itself, typically held in August of election years, will ultimately resolve this question. Until then, shifts in candidate announcements, polling data, or fundraising reports could materially move this probability up or down.

Key factors:
- Cawthorn's track record in recent elections, particularly his 2022 primary loss in NC-11 and whether similar patterns hold in FL-19
- Strength and number of competing Republican candidates who announce entry into the FL-19 race
- Cawthorn's fundraising totals and spending relative to primary opponents in the months before the election
- Demographics and historical voting patterns of FL-19's Republican primary electorate
- Any new polling data or internal campaign metrics released between now and the August primary election

Contracts:
- Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?: Jim Schwartzel — 27¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 100%)
- Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?: Catalina Lauf — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?: Jim Oberweis — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.609Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fl19r
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Madison%20Cawthorn%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20FL-19
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev