51% — Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06 Kalshi 51% · 17 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-24 05:26:45 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates traders estimate a 3% chance that Aaron Baker will win the Republican primary nomination for Florida's 6th congressional district. The low level reflects limited market conviction about Baker's candidacy relative to other potential nominees in the race. Movement in this probability would likely depend on several factors: Baker's visibility and campaign infrastructure compared to other primary contenders, any polling data showing his support level among GOP primary voters, endorsements from established Republican figures or organizations, and fundraising performance. The Republican primary election itself would be the ultimate catalyst resolving this uncertainty, though significant momentum shifts could occur during the pre-primary period if Baker gains media attention or demonstrates unexpected grassroots support. Currently, the minimal trading volume suggests limited market interest in this specific outcome, which typically indicates either low perceived likelihood or insufficient information for traders to confidently assess the race. Key factors: - Aaron Baker's name recognition and prior electoral experience in FL-06 or Florida Republican politics relative to other primary candidates - Polling results from Republican primary voters in FL-06 showing Baker's support level compared to competing nominees - Fundraising totals and spending capacity demonstrating whether Baker can mount a viable campaign infrastructure - Endorsements or organizational support from established GOP figures, groups, or the state party apparatus - The timing and structure of Florida's Republican primary process and filing deadlines for the 2026 cycle Contracts: - Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06?: Charles Gambaro — 13¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 21%) - Will Jim Norton be the Republican nominee for FL-02?: Jim Norton — 18¢ Kalshi $741 (weight 14%) - Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?: Randy Fine — 85¢ Kalshi $678 (weight 13%) - Will Oliver Larkin be the Democratic nominee for FL-25?: Oliver Larkin — 20¢ Kalshi $579 (weight 11%) - Will Vibert White be the Republican nominee for FL-10?: Vibert White — 3¢ Kalshi $577 (weight 11%) - Will Willie Montague be the Republican nominee for FL-10?: Willie Montague — 5¢ Kalshi $449 (weight 9%) - Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?: Debbie Wasserman Schultz — 51¢ Kalshi $444 (weight 8%) - Will George Moraitis be the Republican nominee for FL-25?: George Moraitis — 48¢ Kalshi $331 (weight 6%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-24T05:20:49.586Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/flprimary Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aaron%20Baker%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20FL-06 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev