58% — Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary
Leader: Donalds, Collins, Fishback at 58% · Kalshi 58% · 3 contracts · $449 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 06:03:16 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the probability that Donalds, Collins, and Fishback finish in that exact order in Florida's 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary. The 30% probability for this specific sequence reflects that while Donalds appears positioned as the frontrunner, the second and third finishers remain uncertain among multiple candidates. The exact finishing order depends on candidate momentum shifts, turnout patterns, and potential consolidation among the field in the weeks before voting. Results will materialize when Florida holds its Republican primary election. The relatively fragmented pricing across different three-candidate combinations suggests traders view multiple plausible finishes as competitive rather than strongly favoring any single outcome.

Key factors:
- Donalds appears consistently priced as the likely first-place finisher across all top contracts, but alternative second and third-place finishers carry comparable probabilities (21% for one specific ordering)
- The top five contracts span multiple candidates in positions two and three, indicating substantial uncertainty about who consolidates support beyond the frontrunner
- Trading volume is concentrated in two contracts (Donalds-Collins-Renner at $1,159 and Donalds-Collins-Fishback at $1,127), suggesting these two orderings are seen as most competitive
- No single non-leading ordering exceeds 21%, meaning the 30% leader holds only a modest edge over its closest competitor
- The timing suggests limited time remains for candidate positioning, endorsements, or debate performance to shift the perceived finishing order

Contracts:
- Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?: Donalds, Collins, Fishback — 58¢ Kalshi $449 (weight 100%)
- Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?: Donalds, Fishback, Collins — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?: Donalds, Collins, Renner — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T05:20:51.162Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "58% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/flrgovexact
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20exact%20finishing%20order%20be%20in%20the%202026%20Florida%20Republican%20gubernatorial%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev