65% — How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting
Leader: 0 at 65% · Kalshi 65% · 5 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 15:48:52 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the next Federal Reserve meeting will produce no dissenting votes among the voting committee members. Currently priced at 64%, this suggests traders view consensus as more likely than any outcome involving dissent. Fed dissent typically emerges when members disagree on policy direction, inflation risks, or economic conditions. The current pricing likely reflects relatively stable economic expectations and broad agreement on monetary policy trajectory. Factors that could shift this include unexpected inflation data before the meeting, economic deterioration, or shifts in member rhetoric signaling concerns. The resolution will be determined by the official voting record released immediately after the next scheduled FOMC meeting, where the actual number of dissenting votes becomes public information.

Key factors:
- Current market assigns 19% probability to exactly 1 dissent and 3% to 3+ dissents, indicating baseline expectation of strong consensus
- Recent Fed communication patterns and economic data trends determine whether members publicly signal disagreement before voting
- Historical dissent frequency at recent FOMC meetings provides baseline context for whether 64% aligns with typical consensus levels
- Economic data releases between now and the next meeting (inflation reports, employment, GDP growth) could trigger member disagreement
- Scheduled FOMC meeting date and any pre-meeting member communications will clarify positioning as resolution approaches

Contracts:
- How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?: 0 — 65¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 58%)
- How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?: 1 — 19¢ Kalshi $483 (weight 10%)
- How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?: 2 — 6¢ Kalshi $677 (weight 14%)
- How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?: 3 — 4¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 2%)
- How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?: 4 — 3¢ Kalshi $806 (weight 16%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-17T07:20:23.157Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fomcdissentcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20dissenting%20votes%20at%20the%20next%20Fed%20meeting
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev