34% — Will Democrats win Iowa, Ohio
Leader: Democratic sweep at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 5 contracts · $55 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 06:41:41 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment that Democrats will win both Iowa and Ohio in the 2026 election cycle. At 35%, the Republican sweep scenario is currently favored, suggesting markets view these states as leaning Republican. The current level reflects historical voting patterns in both states—Iowa and Ohio have voted Republican in recent presidential cycles—combined with demographic trends and early polling signals. Movements in this probability would likely respond to shifts in national sentiment, economic indicators before the election, and performance of Democratic or Republican candidates in these specific states. The main catalyst shaping this probability will be campaign developments and polling movements as the election approaches, with particular sensitivity to any major national events affecting voter preferences.

Key factors:
- Iowa and Ohio have voted Republican in the last two presidential cycles (2016, 2020), establishing a baseline expectation favoring GOP performance
- The 35% Democratic outcome is split across multiple contracts, with 'no wins' (Republican sweep) and a single-state Democratic win tied as co-leaders, indicating market uncertainty about which specific outcome dominates
- Kalshi contract volume is relatively modest ($264–$332 in 24h volume per top contracts), suggesting limited price discovery and potential for shifts as market participation increases
- The number of possible outcomes (9 separate contracts) spreads probability mass thinly, with most individual scenarios trading at or near 3¢, reflecting low confidence in any single Democratic path through these states

Contracts:
- Will Democrats win All 4?: Democratic sweep — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win None?: Republican sweep — 33¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 100%)
- Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Ohio?: Texas, Alaska, Ohio — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win Iowa, Ohio?: Iowa, Ohio — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win Texas, Iowa, Ohio?: Texas, Iowa, Ohio — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.525Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fourstatesen
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Democrats%20win%20Iowa%2C%20Ohio
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev