14% — Will Coco Gauff win the French Open
Kalshi 14% · 6 contracts · $8K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 21:55:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Coco Gauff will win the 2026 French Open tennis tournament, currently estimated at 13%. Gauff competes in a field dominated by top-ranked players: Jannik Sinner is priced at 65%, while Iga Swiatek holds 21%, suggesting traders view her as a mid-tier contender rather than a favorite. The 4-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (13%) and Polymarket (9%) indicates modest disagreement on her odds. Gauff's probability would rise with strong performances at preceding tournaments or improved clay-court results, and fall if higher-ranked opponents display superior form. The French Open tournament itself, scheduled for late May 2026, will resolve this contract. Current pricing implies roughly 1-in-8 odds for Gauff, positioning her below Swiatek but above players like Zverev and Djokovic in the market's hierarchy.

Key factors:
- Gauff's 13% implied odds rank below Swiatek (21%) and well below Sinner (65%), suggesting traders view her as unlikely to win despite her career achievements
- Kalshi volumes significantly exceed Polymarket on this outcome ($6,854 in 24h volume), with the 4pp spread indicating room for disagreement on her true probability
- Pre-tournament performance on clay courts between now and late May 2026 will provide concrete data on form and fitness that could shift market pricing
- Recent head-to-head records and ranking fluctuations against top contenders directly inform whether traders adjust the 13% estimate upward or downward
- The tournament date in late May 2026 serves as the hard deadline for resolution, making near-term clay performances the primary catalyst for probability movement

Contracts:
- Will Iga Swiatek win the French Open?: Iga Swiatek — 16¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 20%)
- Will Aryna Sabalenka win the French Open?: Aryna Sabalenka — 31¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 19%)
- Will Marta Kostyuk win the French Open?: Marta Kostyuk — 5¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 18%)
- Will Mirra Andreeva win the French Open?: Mirra Andreeva — 7¢ Kalshi $978 (weight 17%)
- Will Elena Rybakina win the French Open?: Elena Rybakina — 14¢ Kalshi $320 (weight 14%)
- Will Coco Gauff win the French Open?: Coco Gauff — 9¢ Kalshi $109 (weight 12%)

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fowomen
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Coco%20Gauff%20win%20the%20French%20Open
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev