90% — Will the price of Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir be above $100 in 2026 Leader: Above $100 at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 18 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 02:50:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction represents a strong market expectation that Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir will retail for more than $100 by the end of 2026. The high probability reflects current pricing trends in the luxury fragrance market, where premium designer scents typically command prices in this range, and the contract's recent trading activity suggests confidence in this outcome. The main uncertainty centers on potential price adjustments by retailers or changes in currency valuations that could affect USD pricing. A key catalyst would be observing actual retail prices in major markets during the second half of 2026, particularly any official price announcements or shifts in premium fragrance positioning. The gap between the $100 threshold (89%) and the $110 threshold (56%) indicates traders see meaningful probability that the fragrance will exceed $100 but with less certainty about substantially higher prices. Key factors: - Current luxury designer fragrances in this product line typically range from $90–$150 retail in major markets - Trading volume on the $100 contract is higher than competing fragrance contracts, suggesting more certainty or attention on this specific threshold - The fragrance pricing reflects both brand positioning and currency fluctuations; USD strength or weakness could materially impact the threshold - Retail pricing decisions by Jean Paul Gaultier and major department stores between Q3 and Q4 2026 will directly determine resolution - The 33-point gap between the $100 outcome (89%) and $110 outcome (56%) reveals market uncertainty about where the price will actually settle Contracts: - Will the price of YSL Y be above $100 in 2026?: Above $100 — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the price of Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir be above $100 in 2026?: Above $100 — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the price of Versace Eros be above $70 in 2026?: Above $70 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the price of Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir be above $110 in 2026?: Above $110 — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the price of Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male Elixir be above $120 in 2026?: Above $120 — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the price of YSL Y be above $110 in 2026?: Above $110 — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the price of Versace Eros be above $80 in 2026?: Above $80 — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the price of YSL Y be above $120 in 2026?: Above $120 — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.288Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fragrance Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20price%20of%20Jean%20Paul%20Gaultier%20Le%20Male%20Elixir%20be%20above%20%24100%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev