76% — French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026
Leader: who will announce a run in 2026?: Raphaël Glucksmann at 76% · Polymarket 76% · 19 contracts · $81 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:08:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Contracts:
- French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Raphaël Glucksmann — 76¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Dominique de Villepin — 76¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Jordan Bardella — 73¢ Polymarket $69 (weight 85%)
- French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: François Hollande — 61¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Marine Le Pen — 46¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Éric Zemmour — 42¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Bernard Cazeneuve — 31¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Jean Castex — 20¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-24T23:20:08.254Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/french-presidential-election-who-announce-run
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=French%20Presidential%20Election%3A%20who%20will%20announce%20a%20run%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev