93% — 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot
Leader: who will be on the ballot?: Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 93% · Polymarket 93% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:08:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Contracts:
- 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Jean-Luc Mélenchon — 93¢ Polymarket $9 (weight 1%)
- 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Édouard Philippe — 87¢ Polymarket $235 (weight 14%)
- 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Nathalie Arthaud — 83¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Jordan Bardella — 77¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Éric Zemmour — 52¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan — 45¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Gabriel Attal — 42¢ Polymarket $161 (weight 9%)
- 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Raphaël Glucksmann — 39¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-24T23:20:08.669Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/french-presidential-election-who-ballot
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2027%20French%20Presidential%20Election%3A%20who%20will%20be%20on%20the%20ballot
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev