92% — Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above 0.3% Leader: Above -0.5% at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 13 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 10:35:55 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects a 94% probability that France's preliminary Q2 2026 GDP growth will exceed -0.5% quarter-over-quarter, indicating traders expect the economy to avoid a substantial contraction. The high probability reflects confidence in modest positive or near-flat growth rather than recession-level decline. Factors supporting this level include France's recent economic resilience and the relatively low threshold; downside risks include eurozone weakness, geopolitical shocks, or weaker-than-expected business/consumer activity. The resolution hinges on INSEE's preliminary GDP release for Q2 2026, typically published in early August 2026. The steep probability gradient across the contract band (78¢ at -0.1% to 94¢ at -0.5%) suggests market uncertainty clusters around slight negative to flat outcomes, not deeper contractions. Key factors: - INSEE preliminary Q2 2026 GDP release date (typically early August 2026) will definitively resolve the contract - Market prices show 78% confidence in growth above -0.1%, dropping to 94% above -0.5%, indicating consensus uncertainty between slight contraction and flat growth - The 0.4 percentage-point difference between the leading contract (94¢) and the -0.1% threshold (78¢) represents ~16¢ of probability mass, reflecting material divergence in central estimates - Recent Q1 2026 preliminary data would have influenced current pricing; comparison to historical French QoQ GDP volatility (typically ±0.3%) is a baseline calibration - Eurozone PMI releases, inflation data, and ECB policy signals between now and August 2026 will likely shift the probability as new growth indicators emerge Contracts: - Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.5%?: Above -0.5% — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4% — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.3%?: Above -0.3% — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2% — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.1%?: Above -0.1% — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1% — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2% — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.532Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/frgdpqoqp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20France%20GDP%20growth%20rate%20QoQ%20prel%20for%20Q1%202026%20be%20above%200.3%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev